what is stock

In tonight’s Presidential debate, the moderator Chris Wallace stated:

Secretary Clinton, I want to pursue your [economic] plan, because in many ways it is similar to the Obama stimulus plan in 2009, which has led to the slowest GDP growth since 1949.

[Entire transcript here]

Oops. I don’t know where Mr. Wallace learned his economics. I think he’s got the causality wrong – the big stimulus was a response to a deep recession and big negative output gap. Time to consult data (like the data mentioned in Monday’s post) on the question of what we should have expected in terms of growth.

The question is whether the economy is outperforming what should have been expected in the wake of a financial crisis following excessive credit growth. Jorda, Schularick and Taylor (JMCB, 2013) addressed this question (ungated 2012 wp), and provided their assessment, based upon a cross-country econometric analysis. The US experience was placed in context in their Figu re 3 (see discussion in this 2013 post).

what is stock: The Blackstone Group L.P.(BX)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Jim Powell]

    Steve Halpern: Among your recent recommendations is a housing related play called the Blackstone Group (BX), a private equity firm. Could you explain how that’s related to the housing sector?

  • [By Wayne Duggan]

    There have been no significant construction projects on this scale in Las Vegas since the opening of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX)’s Cosmopolitan resort in 2010.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares ofBlackstone(BX) have gained 3.4% to $23.61 in pre-open trading after it was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

    Huntsman (HUN) has gained 2.5% to $19.75 after the chemical company’s shares were raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

  • [By Money Morning Staff Reports]

    At least if private-equity leviathan Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) CEO Tony James has anything to say about it.

    You see, James has a working theory about what to do with the U.S. retirement system that currently charges participants large 401(k) and 403(b) asset and consulting percentage fees…


    Of the ten PE companies that I follow, Blackstone Group LP (BX) is by far and away the largest publicly traded private equity partnership with a $35 billion market cap, but also the best positioned to benefit from all the catalysts noted within.

what is stock: LyondellBasell Industries NV(LYB)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Chad Tracy]

    TransCanada is not the only company that stands to profit from the possible Keystone XL approval. Refiners such as Valero and LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB), as well as construction companies Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) and Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) all stand to gain if Keystone XL gets the green light.

  • [By Chad Tracy]

    In a classic contrarian move, he purchased more shares of troubled plastics-maker LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB), even as the company was sliding toward bankruptcy.

what is stock: SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares ofJPMorgan Chase have gained 1% to $60.16 at 1:21 p.m. today, whileWells Fargo has advanced 0.7% to $46.54, andBank of America has risen 1.1% to $12.88. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has advanced 0.6% to $29.44, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) has ticked up 0.3% to $22.44.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares of Bank of America have declined 0.4% to $14.56 at 12:06 p.m. today, while JPMorgan Chase has fallen 0.7% to $63.92. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is little changed at $31.93.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares of Citigroup have surged 1.2% to $56.48 at 11:09 a.m. today, while JPMorgan Chase has risen 1.2% to $85.67, Wells Fargo has advanced 0.5% to $56.22, and Bank of America has climbed 1.9% to $23.08. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is up 0.8% at $43.80.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    The financial sector has performed terribly this year, and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has performed even worse. Now, Cornerstone Macro’s Carter Worth offers 20 beaten down stocks for a financial sector catch-up trade, including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC). He explains why:

    Craig Warga/Bloomberg News

    Todays edition of Money in Motion is very specific in nature, dealing with a singular circumstance: depressedfinancials stocks that have lagged the S&P 500 Financials Sector, which itself has lagged the overall market.

    The names in question, trading far below their respectively declining 150-day moving averages, have shown signs oflife as of late and the presumption is that they will continue to assert themselves in the day/days ahead, and in doingso, will, make it back up to their 150-day moving averages, just as so many other stocks in the market have done, andas the market itself has done.

    There is no message in todays piece. Financials were designated as an UNDERWEIGHT to start the year and weretain that view. The thinking here today is simple: almost every single bedraggled, downtrodden stock in themarket, across a wide range of industries, has managed to lift its tattered disheveled self off the mat and make a runat its declining smoothing mechanism (its 150-day moving average). It is our judgment that the handful of stockssingled out herein will do the same – and as such, they are worth a shot on the long side for a catch up trade, by ourwork.

    Worth is certainly right about the bank stocks he mentions. While the S&P 500 has dipped 0.6% so far this year through March 11, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) has dropped 5.6%, and theSPDR S&P Bank ETF has fallen 8.4%. Even worse: Morgan Stanley has plunged 18%, Bank of America has plummeted 18%, Citigroup has tumbled 17%, and Wells Fargo is off 7.2%.

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