stock market commentary


With the US dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) tipped to strengthen considerably under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, we feel stocks with largely domestic operations will outperform those with significant international operations over the next 12 months due to currency headwinds. With 4,712 stores based across 45 U.S. states, O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) is a stock we believe could prove to be a great investment today.

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Not only will O’Reilly Automotive be safe from currency headwinds due to having its operations wholly within U.S. borders, unlike rival AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) which has approximately 9% of its stores in Mexico, but the company also stands to benefit from lower import costs, thanks to the strong dollar. Although O’Reilly Automotive doesn’t state the proportion of its products which are imported, considering the overlap in product assortment and strikingly similar gross margins, we feel it is safe to presume it will be comparable to AutoZone. As per its 10K, AutoZone sources 10% of its products from overseas, whilst acknowledging that “many of our domestic vendors directly import their products or components of their products.”

stock market commentary: American International Group Inc.(AIG)


Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Citigroup’s Todd Bault and Erik Bass argue that “there are likely more good things that can happen compared to bad” for American International Group (AIG). They explain:

  • [By David Sterman]

    My favorite insurers: AIG (NYSE: AIG) (which I discussed a few months ago), Protective Life (NYSE: PL) and Reinsurance Group of America (NYSE: RGA).

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    BMO’s Charles Sebaski explains why he upgraded American International Group (AIG) to Outperform from market Perform:

    Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

    AIG has been trading at discount to its tangible book given its mid-single digit return profile; however, we expect AIGs valuation to keep increasing with its improving return profile. We are now forecasting AIG to generate a 9.9% operating return on tangible common equity (ROtE) in 2018, which would be a 450 bp improvement from 2016. A double-digit return profile warrants the 1x multiple that we are applying to its tangible book value per share. While we expect AIGs return profile to benefit from lower taxes, we also expect the companys life and retirement business to improve from the rising interest rates as those spread businesses are more interest rate sensitive than the P&C business. That said, we expect continued improvement on both the loss and expense sides of the P&C as contributing factors to the ROtE improve.


    BMO also upgraded Arch Capital Group (ACGL), Brown & Brown (BRO), and Travelers (TRV).

    Shares of American International Group have declined 0.4% to $65.60 at 3:36 p.m. today, whileArch Capital Group has gained 2% to $87.90,Brown & Brown has advanced 0.5% to $44.65, andTravelers has risen 1.3% to $120.79.

  • [By Diane Alter]

    The last time a Dow shake-up caused such a stir was in April 2004, when AT&T (NYSE: T), Eastman Kodak (currently in bankruptcy proceedings), and International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) were removed and replaced with American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ).

stock market commentary: Concho Resources Inc.(CXO)


Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Our peer group is up an average of 46% over the past 4 weeks in response to a 30% rebound in the 12-month strip NYMEX oil price. Some of the largest gainers include Hold and Sell rated stocks that we would not chase such asDenbury Resources (Sell, +138%), Halcon Resources (HK) (Sell, +147%), Jones Energy (JONE) (Hold, +166%), Rex Energy (REXX) (Sell, +60%), Sanchez Energy (SN) (Hold, +93%), Ultra Petroleum (UPL) (Sell, +61%), andWhiting Petroleum (Hold, +103%), which have outperformed the E&P Index (+32%) over the same time period. Balance sheets and/or well level returns remain challenged for these companies despite improved oil prices. While we believe oil markets should re-balance over the next 12 to 15 months, the recent recovery to $40 could reverse during 2Q16 as bloated inventories continue to rise, new volumes from Iran pressure an oversupplied market, and a highly anticipated decline in non-OPEC supply (especially in the U.S.), is not as steep as expected. The risk of an oil price retracement, which would significantly pressure the recent out-performers, outweighs the upside in these stocks, in our view. However, we are raising our target prices on Buy ratedAnadarko Petroleum ($54 from $48), Concho Resources (CXO) ($120 from $109), Matador Resources (MTDR) ($22 from $21),Noble Energy (NBL) ($40 from $34), SM Energy (SM) ($22 from $15), Rice Energy ($14 from $12), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) ($155 from $135),Continental Resources ($32 from $28), and Parsley Energy (PE) ($24 from $23). We believe our Buy-rated stocks are better positioned to weather challenging oil markets.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Large Caps. Our E&P coverage is pricing in $61/bbl WTI and $3.30 gas, and with a lower crude forecast the group is looking less compelling. We argue names that continue to demonstrate resource improvement at the low-end of the cost curve, namely in the Permian and STACK remain attractive, such as Concho Resources (CXO), Devon Energy (DVN), Newfield Exploration (NFX) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). Noble (NBL) remains a compelling value, though has yet to commit to an accelerated US onshore drilling program.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Lear also sees strong “upside potential” forConcho Resources (CXO), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Newfield Exploration (NFX) as well performance improves in the Permian/STACK, and also writes positively on Devon Energy (DVN).

stock market commentary: Dow Treasuries(DV)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart of Apollo Education Group along with peersITT Educational Services, Inc (NYSE: ESI) and DeVry Education Group Inc (NYSE: DV) reflect the headwinds from the Obama administration:

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Shares of DeVry Education Group Inc (NYSE: DV) were down 14 percent to $15.61. DeVry Education named Patrick Unzicker as its Chief Financial Officer. Credit Suisse downgraded DeVry from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $25.00 to $17.00.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Friday afternoon, the industrial shares gained by 0.09 percent. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included The GEO Group Inc (NYSE: GEO), and DeVry Education Group Inc (NYSE: DV).

stock market commentary: URS Corporation(URS)


Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Fidelty’s John Mirshekaritook a look at URS(URS) today at the Value Investing Congress.His takeaway: The stock could double in two years.

    Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

    His analysis started with URS’s use of its free cash. During the past, it hasn’t been pretty. They spent 6.3 billion on eight acquisitions, they’ve bought companies at valuations higher than own stock and return-on-equity has dropped from high teens to just 6%.


    The problem hasn’t been its business: Its return on tangible capital is 17%. Instead, the problem is that its management hasn’t maximized value through capital allocation. URS has lowest valuation: 9x 2013 cash earnings in its industry.

    Part of the problem: Management incentives are based on net income. This year, however, relative total shareholder return was added., something Mirshekari calls”a step in the right direction.” In May, URS filed an amended proxy which says it will look to change incentives from net income to return on equity and earnings per share. More importantly, it said acquisitions would end.


    If all goes right, URS could double in two years,Mirshekari says, comparing it to AECOM Technology (ACM).

    Looks a lot like AECOMM, which did something similar and rallied.

  • [By Ian Wyatt, Publisher & Chief Investment Strategist, Wyatt Investment Research]

    Fund manager John Mirshekari, of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, recommended shares of URS (URS), an engineering and construction contractor.

stock market commentary: Omnicom Group Inc.(OMC)


Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By WWW.MONEYSHOW.COM]

    We reprise five of last year’s components: Boeing (BA), CVS Health (CVS), International Business Machines (IBM), Omnicom Group (OMC) and Texas Instruments (TXN), which means they obviously are buys.

stock market commentary: Investors Real Estate Trust(IRET)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Monica Gerson]

     

    General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) is expected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.60 per share on revenue of $3.86 billion. Pier 1 Imports Inc (NYSE: PIR) is projected to post a quarterly loss at $0.05 per share on revenue of $420.05 million. Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE: AYI) is estimated to report its quarterly earnings at $2.03 per share on revenue of $847.79 million. Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) is projected to report its quarterly earnings at $2.40 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion. Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WOR) is expected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.64 per share on revenue of $692.48 million. Progress Software Corporation (NASDAQ: PRGS) is projected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $94.64 million. UniFirst Corp (NYSE: UNF) is estimated to report its quarterly earnings at $1.34 per share on revenue of $366.28 million. Exfo Inc (NASDAQ: EXFO) is expected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.06 per share on revenue of $60.87 million. OMNOVA Solutions Inc. (NYSE: OMN) is projected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.14 per share on revenue of $205.40 million. 8Point3 Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: CAFD) is estimated to post a quarterly loss at $0.01 per share on revenue of $11.60 million. Park Electrochemical Corp. (NYSE: PKE) is expected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.22 per share on revenue of $35.30 million. Xplore Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: XPLR) is projected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $24.00 million. Investors Real Estate Trust (NYSE: IRET) is expected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.14 per share on revenue of $56.87 million. Tel-Instrument Electronics Corp. (NYSE: TIK) is estimated to post earnings for the latest quarter. Aethlon Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: AEMD) is expected to post a quarterly loss at $0.20 per share. Ossen Innovation Co Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ: OSN) is projected to post ea

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