Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) continues to be underappreciated by the market. Now that it is public, the luxury electric vehicle (EV) maker expects to start producing and delivering its sleek model Air sedan in the second half of 2021. Once that starts expect to see LCID stock move significantly higher to its inherent value.
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Last month I wrote that LCID stock is worth $46.22 per share, or a little over twice its Aug. 16 closing price of $22.83. However, based on its recent S-1 filing on Aug. 2, I decided to revise slightly this valuation. I believe it is now worth $43.57 per share, or 91% over the Aug. 16 price. Here is why.
What LCID Stock is Worth
The new S-1 filing indicates on page 4 that there are now 1.619 billion shares outstanding. That puts its market cap at $36.953 billion.
However, the company also said that there assuming all warrants are exercised (as they are in the money now), there will be 1.704 billion shares outstanding. That raises its market value to $38.91 billion.
In my previous article, I wrote that Lucid’s 2026 sales are forecast by the company to be $22.756 billion. That can be seen on page 65 of its latest July slide presentation.
It turns out that the net present value using a 10% discount rate is $14.819 billion. I described this in my prior article. Therefore, at today’s effective market value of $38.91 billion, Lucid trades for 2.62 times sales ($38.91 billion / $14.819 billion).
I argued in my article that LCID stock is worth at least 5 times sales. So based on its 2.62 times valuation today, this implies that it is worth 90.84% more.
So, today at $22.83 per share, LCID stock is worth $43.57 per share (1.9084 x $22.83). That is slightly lower than my previous prediction that the stock was worth $46.22.
The difference from before is mainly due to its higher-than-expected share count. That raises its market cap and lowers its comparative valuation.
Where This Leaves Lucid
So far the company has not released its Q2 earnings or made any statements when it going to start delivering its Air model. As things stand, the company’s presentation indicates that only 20,000 EVs will be delivered in 2022. That will ramp up to 251,000 by the end of 2026.
However, the composition of these 251,000 EVs is quite interesting. It includes 134,000 of an SUV EV model called the Gravity, which has not yet been produced or even completely spec’d out. That is significantly higher than the 40,000 model Air sedans by 2026. Moreover, 75,000 of the 251,000 EVs assumed for delivery by 2026 will be for future models introduced in 2025.
Therefore, if this leaves you wondering how reliable Lucid’s projections are, you might be justified. Almost 30% of the 2026 projections relate to models not even announced yet. Therefore we can’t really verify the assumptions that underline the projected 2026 revenue of $22.756 billion.
So, just to be conservative, let’s cut out the “future models” portion of the $22.756 billion projection. That lowers the forecast revenue to $15.93 billion. The net present value using a 10% annual discount rate (a 65.12% discount factor across the whole period) is $10.373 billion.
That raises today’s P/S multiple to 3.75 times. So, assuming it’s worth 5 times sales, the target market value should be a third higher. This puts the value of LCID stock at $30.44.
Once the company announces the future models and explains their market entry, pricing, and expected demand, we can revise our projections upward.
What To Do With LCID Stock
By looking more carefully at what Lucid is saying and doing we have been able to revise our forecast and price target. This is what being circumspect is about and using a margin of safety in developing a valuation for a stock.
Nevertheless, LCID stock still looks to be a good bargain, as it is worth one-third more than today’s price. Astute investors will begin to take a stake in the stock and average cost into it if it falls further.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold any position in any of the securities mentioned in the article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.