Buy USDINR; target of 69.65 – 69.75: ICICI Direct


ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR

Spot Currency

The rupee ended on Friday with some recovery, sustaining gains of 18-paise vs. US$. However, the dollar index is higher since the rupee’s Friday close. We expect it to see limited appreciation ahead of RBI’s monetary policy meeting this week • The dollar was slightly lower yesterday amid the recovery in British Pound and JPY. Brexit uncertainty continues to hang as the UK Parliament deadlock deepens. UK has to intimate EU by April 12, 2019 whether it wants an extension, approves a deal or by default it will crash out of EU without an agreement.


Benchmark yield

Sovereign benchmark treasury yields rose to 7.35% on Friday. Domestic retail inflation for February rose to 2.57% while flows in the debt segment would keep yields contained. Gradually rising crude oil prices will remain in focus in the near term • US treasury yields rose to 2.50% while resurfacing of global growth concerns as well as Brexit stalemate remain key triggers. Europe and Japan 10-year debt yields remain negative as growth outlook has worsened.

Currency futures on NSE

The dollar-rupee April contract on the NSE was at 69.51 in the previous session. April contract open interest rose 0.64% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.


Intra-day strategy 

US$INR April futures contract (NSE) View: Bullish on US$INR
Buy US$ in the range of 69.38 -69.44 Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 69.65 / 69.75 Stop Loss: 69.25
Support Resistance
S1/ S2: 69.40 / 69.30 R1/R2:69.65 /69.80

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First Published on Apr 2, 2019 11:50 am

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