In 2011 Scott’s Investments began tracking a momentum portfolio which ranks a basket of ETFs based on price momentum and volatility. In 2014 I also introduced a pure momentum system, which ranks the same basket of ETFs based solely on 6 month price momentum. The first portfolio was previously called the “ETFReplay.com Portfolio” but at the beginning of 2016 was renamed “Conservative Momentum Portfolio” (or “6/3/3 strategy”) to reflect some changes in the portfolio and tracking methodology for both portfolios detailed below.
In previous years the Conservative Momentum Portfolio began with a static basket of 14 ETFs. The basket of 14 ETFs has been reduced to 10 ETFs. This change was made in order to further simplify the portfolio. The 10 ETFs are listed below:
RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond EFA iShares MSCI EAFE EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT TIP iShares Barclays TIPS VTI Va nguard MSCI Total U.S. Stock Market GLD SPDR Gold Shares TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasry Bnd Fd Click to enlarge
The ETFs are still ranked by 6 month total returns (weighted 40%), 3 month total returns (weighted 30%), and 3 month price volatility (weighted 30%). The top 3 are purchased at the beginning of each month and if a holding drops out of the top 3 at the next month’s rebalance it will be replaced. Previously, the portfolio purchased the top 4 ETFs and only sold when a holding dropped out of the top 5. In addition, ETFs previously had to be ranked above the cash-like ETF (NYSEARCA:SHY) in order to be included in the portfolio. This requirement has been removed, so the top 3 ETFs will be held regardless of proximity to SHY.
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